Methodology

CFPA METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW

1. CFPA recipients are selected exclusively based upon objective scientific rankings.
2. Objective scientific rankings are based upon meta-algorithms derived from Differential Equations, Statistics, and Probability.
3. Meta-algorithms are empirically justified based upon millions of data collected from the past 9 seasons of FBS college football.
4. Meta-algorithms are internally valid, externally valid, significantly predictive, non-arbitrary, non-exclusionary, and quantitative.

POSITIVE IMPACT OF CFPA METHODOLOGY

The CFPA methodology:

1. Eliminates the politics and biases that vitiate the awards process.
2. Promotes scientific literacy by encouraging rational discourse.
3. Advances a deeper, more sophisticated understanding and appreciation of the game.
4. Fosters equity and fairness through honesty and inclusion.


GOAL OF RESEARCH

The goal of the CFPA research is to advance a sophisticated representation of college football; a just, refined, and elegant measurement of performance; a precise, objective, and scientifically reliable selection of deserving recipients; an inherently dispassionate, methodologically sound, and experimentally valid celebration of individual achievement.


OVERALL AWARDS

The Overall Awards system annually recognizes the FBS performers responsible for the most overall team success. A performer x is an Overall Awards recipient if and only if x is responsible for the most overall success in Division I FBS college football when controlling for team success, which includes strength of schedule, and the contributions of teammates.


OFFENSIVE AWARDS

The Offensive Awards system annually recognizes the FBS statistical performance champions at 4 positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. The statistical performance champions at each position are determined based upon the extent to which a performer increases the overall effectiveness of that performer’s team. A performer x is an Offensive Awards recipient if and only if x contributes the most to team success of any performer in Division I FBS college football, when controlling for strength of schedule.


DEFENSIVE AWARDS

The Defensive Awards system annually recognizes the FBS statistical performance champions at 3 positions: defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back. A performer x is a Defensive Awards recipient if and only if x contributes the most to team success of any performer in Division I FBS college football, when controlling for strength of schedule.


SPECIAL TEAMS AWARDS

The Special Teams Awards system annually recognizes the FBS specialists responsible for demonstrating the greatest performances beyond the expected mean of efficiency for performance at 5 positions: placekicker, punter, kickoff specialist, punt returner, and kickoff returner. The expected efficiency for each performance varies based upon the respective difficulty of that performer’s attempts or returns. A performer x is a Special Teams Awards recipient if and only if x is the most efficient performer at that position among Division I FBS college football performers, when controlling for strength of schedule. Note: Also, when controlling for atmospheric density (altitude) in the case of Kickoff Specialist performers.


ELITE PERFORMANCE AWARDS

The Elite Performance Series was developed to address the limitations of the annual series. Typically, Elite Performance Series recipients are consistent multi-season performers or have done something outside a normal distribution of expectations that demands recognition. Elite Performance (1) honors recipients for being the top cumulative performer over multiple seasons. Elite Performance (2) honors recipients for finishing multiple seasons with performances of at least 2 standard deviations above a normally distributed mean for performance. Elite Performance (3) honors recipients with the strongest freshman performances. Elite Performance (4) honors recipients who finish seasons with strong performances and cannot be eliminated from consideration for annual awards due to insignificant statistical significance or relative confidence. A performer x is an Elite Series recipient only if x is the top performer over multiple seasons, finishes at least three seasons with a performance in the top 2.275013%, finishes with the top freshman performance, or finishes a season with a strong performance and cannot be eliminated due to insufficient statistical significance or relative confidence.